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Sunday
27Dec2009

Will people still read in the future?

This question and debate was motivated by my comments on the recent blog post The Future of Reading by Phil Simon.

In the following OCDQ Video, I share some of my perspectives on the future of reading, specifically covering three key points:

  1. Books vs. e-Books
  2. Print Media vs. Social Media
  3. Reading vs. Multimedia

  If you are having trouble viewing this video, then you can watch it on Vimeo by clicking on this link: OCDQ Video

 

A Very Brief History of Human Communication

Long before written language evolved, humans communicated using hand and facial gestures, monosyllabic and polysyllabic grunting, as well as crude drawings and other symbols, all in an attempt to share our thoughts and feelings with each other.

First, improved spoken language increased our ability to communicate by using words as verbal symbols for emotions and ideas.  Listening to stories, and retelling them to others, became the predominant means of education and “recording” our history.

Improved symbolism via more elaborate drawings, sculptures, and other physical and lyrical works of artistic expression, greatly enhanced our ability to not only communicate, but also leave a lasting legacy beyond the limits of our individual lives.

Later, written language would provide a quantum leap in human evolution.  Writing (and reading) greatly improved our ability to communicate, educate, record our history, and thereby pass on our knowledge and wisdom to future generations.

 

The Times They Are a-Changin’

The pervasiveness of the Internet and the rapid proliferation of powerful mobile technology is transforming the very nature of human communication—some purists might even argue it is regressing human communication.

I believe there is already a declining interest in reading throughout society in general, and more specifically, a marked decline across current generation gaps, which will become even more dramatic in the coming decades.

 

Books vs. e-Books

People are reading fewer books—and fewer people are reading books.  The highly polarized “book versus e-book debate” is really only a debate within the shrinking segment of the population that still reads books. 

So, yes, between us book lovers, some of us will not exchange our personal tactile relationship with printed books for an e-book reader made of the finest plastic, glass, and metal, and equipped with all the bells and whistles of the latest technology. 

However, e-book readers simply aren't going to make non-book readers want to read books.  I am truly sorry Amazon and Barnes & Noble, but the truth is—the Kindle and Nook are not going to making reading books cool—they will simply provide an alternative for people who already enjoy reading books, and mostly for those who also love having the latest techno-gadgets.

 

Print Media vs. Social Media

We continue to see print media (newspapers, magazines, and books) either offering electronic alternatives, or transitioning into online publications—or in some cases, simply going out of business.

I believe the primary reason for this media transition is our increasing interest in exchanging what has traditionally been only a broadcast medium (print media) for a conversation medium (social media).

Social media can engage us in conversation and enable communication between content creators and their consumers.

We are constantly communicating with other people via phone calls, text messages, e-mails, and status updates on Twitter and Facebook.  We are also sharing more of our lives visually through the photos we post on Flickr and the videos we post on YouTube.  More and more, we are creating—and not just consuming—content that we want to share with others.

We are also gaining more control over how we filter communication.  Google real-time searches and e-mail alerts, RSS readers, and hashtagged Twitter streams—these are just a few examples of the many tools currently allowing us to customize and personalize the content we create and consume.

We are becoming an increasingly digital society, and through social media, we are living more and more of both our personal and professional lives online, blurring—if not eliminating—the distinction between the two.

 

Reading vs. Multimedia

I believe the future of human communication will be a return to the more direct social interactions that existed before the evolution of written language.  I am not predicting a return to polysyllabic grunting and interpretive dance. 

Instead, I believe we will rely less and less on reading and writing, and more and more on watching, listening, and speaking.

The future of human communication may become short digital bursts of multimedia experiences, seamlessly blending an economy of words with audio and video elements.  Eventually, even digitally written words may themselves disappear—and we will communicate via interactive digital video and audio—and the very notion of “literacy” may become meaningless.

But fear not—I don't predict this will happen until the end of the century—and I am probably completely wrong anyway.

 

Please Share Your Thoughts

Do you read a lot of books?  If so, have you purchased an e-book reader (e.g., Amazon Kindle, Barnes & Noble Nook) or are you planning to in the near-future?  If you have an e-book reader, how would you compare it to reading a printed book?

Do you read newspapers and/or magazines?  If so, are you reading them in print or online? 

How often do you read blogs and other publications that are only available as online content?

How often do you listen to podcasts or watch video blogs or other online videos (excluding television and movies)?

What is the future of reading?


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Reader Comments (10)

Jim,

I had similar point of view about e-books vs. paper printed books until 12-18 months back. But then I downloaded Amazon's Kindle on my iPhone and things changed.

I love reading some books exclusively on e-books (recently I was given a gift of Kindle). Books which do not have a lot of charts/diagrams are ideal to read on e-book reader (in my opinion). Not only do they cost less and help save trees, but it is also so easy to read a book using an e-reader anywhere (it is lightweight, thin and easy to hold). There are some books (technical or illustrated) which I do not want to read on e-books. I prefer these books in the print form.

Communication form and methods are definitely changing rapidly. Just try reading some of the abbreviations from the SMS messages from teenager’s cell phone and you know what I mean (I for one do not understand half of those abbreviations).

In this day and age of micro blogging, people are trying to communicate in smaller spurts using other multimedia resources. So I sometimes tend to agree about regression in communication.

In my house, we do have dedicated reading time (few hours per week) when we switch off TV, CD Players, and Phones and just read. This is one way to make sure reading habits are nurtured in the next generation.

Vish Agashe

December 27, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterVish Agashe

Personally, I read and write much more today than before.

That is less printed material but then – measured in time consumption – much more on the Internet. I still read books but not that many at home. Instead most book – and printed newspaper – reading is done when I travel.

If I look at the content I now read much more stuff (online) coming from foreign countries and in foreign languages. For example reading news presented from where it happened, maybe from different sources there and close to when it happened is so much better than reading an extract about it in your local newspaper the day after.

If I look at my children it’s a mixed picture. My daughter (22) reads lots of books. My youngest son (15) doesn’t like books and printed material that much. On the other he reads and writes English (we are from Denmark) much better than I did when I was 15 – because he spends time on the Internet (including chatting in online gaming).

December 28, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterHenrik Liliendahl Sørensen

Jim,

Interesting post.

People are reading fewer books—and fewer people are reading books. The highly polarized “book versus e-book debate” is really only a debate within the shrinking segment of the population that still reads books.

I would see you and raise you. There's a shrinking segment of the population that consumes physical products. CDs, DVDs, and books are among three of the "endangered species" of the digital age.

As an author (there's really no way to use that phrase without sounding pretentious, so I won't even try), I can barely describe the first time that I held my first book in my hands. I can't imagine receiving the same thrill from a PDF or a file on a Kindle. I suspect that musicians feel the same way about their work, as do movie directors.

Sign of the times? I suppose so. That doesn't mean that I have to like it.

December 28, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterPhil Simon

Jim,

This post was particularly thought provoking. Thank you.

I had an opportunity to study and write about informal learning in the past year and one concept that resonated with me was the notion of Personal Learning Environments (PLE).

In the context of your post, I would regard reading is one element of my PLE, i.e. a method for processing content. One power of the PLE is that you can control your content, process, objectives, and tools. Your PLE will also vary depending on where you are and even with the type of access you have.

For example, I have just spent the last two days without WiFi. I was also off of the blue part of the AT&T 3G map. As frustrated as I was, I adapted my PLE based on that scenario. This morning, I'm sitting in McDonald's drinking coffee but wasn't in a place to watch your video. (Thank goodness you posted text.)

Even without my current location as a factor, I don't always watch videos or listen to podcasts because I have less control of the content and/or pace.

In regards to your questions, I like books, I read e-books, online content, occasional video, audio books, Kindle on the iPhone. Combine these items with TweetDeck, Google Reader, the paper version of the Minneapolis Star Tribune, Amazon, and the Public Library, and you have identified the regular components of my PLE. To me the tools and process will vary based on my situation.

I also recognize that other people will most likely employ different tools and processes. The richness of our environment may suggest a decline in reading, but in the end it all comes down to different strokes for different folks. Everyone motivated to learn can create their own PLE.

Thanks for getting me going this morning.

Don

December 28, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterDon Frederiksen

Thanks Vish, Henrik, Phil, and Don for your great comments!

Best Regards,

Jim

December 28, 2009 | Registered CommenterJim Harris

Jim,

I've been talking about this with friends and family all week! I believe people will always read to acquire knowledge although the mediums for doing so seem to be on a continual evolutionary path.

I got a Kindle from Santa and I'm pumped about it!

I think this will increase my reading three-fold since many of my favorites will be right at my finger tips within one device.

Incidentally, I also received two hard copy books for Christmas as well.

They are both from Robert Wright: "The Moral Animal" and "Nonzero: The Logic of Human Destiny," which touches on the same type of theme that your blog post has.

Great blog post!

December 28, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterWilliam Sharp

Great GREAT post Jim!

Personally I LOVE the smell and feel of a new printed book.

I sometimes have to check to make sure no one is looking when I caress the cover ;)

AND, I love tech toys, so for me, I am happy with both types of materials.

As for newspapers and magazines, again, I enjoy both printed and online. Printed because there is just something very special about spreading out the Sunday paper while drinking your coffee and relaxing in your pj's.

The reason I enjoy the online version, and I feel very strongly about this, is that I have very high expectations on the validity of the material read. It used to frustrate me to no end when I read an article or editorial that I just did not agree with but had no option to provide an opinion or rebuttal without having to write a letter (snail mail) to the editor and wait (sometimes longer than a week) to see if it actually got posted.

On-line versions allow us the ability to comment immediately and thereby contribute to the story by means of an opinion, advice, or suggestions for improvement. Also, most material online also provides a means for readers to also provide feedback overall, thereby ensuring continuous improvement.

The time I spend reading blogs or viewing multimedia is approximately 10 hours per week, which to me is not enough, however one must sleep sometime.

So to maximize the benefits I always make sure I take the time to read/view my favorites :)

Thanks!

December 28, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterJill Wanless

Thanks William and Jill for sharing your (great, as always) perspectives!

Best Regards,

Jim

December 28, 2009 | Registered CommenterJim Harris

Jim,

Great post, as always.

I've always been a reader and have an entire room in my home devoted to my library (plus some overflow in other rooms). I don't read nearly as many books as I used to, though, because my attention span is much shorter than in the past.

Spending full days online reading and absorbing blogs, videos, podcasts etc (as part of my job!) has somewhat diminished the pleasure I get from books since I'm reading so much. But I do like an hour after dinner with a glass of wine and a good book, curled up in the quiet corner of the house.

I spend two hours a day on a train as part of my commute. In the mornings, I read two newspapers (print copy), and during the evening commute, I read a book or magazine.

My fiance wanted to get me a Kindle for Christmas, but I told him to hold off, as I'm not sure I want to spend even more of my day staring at a screen. Though I expect that at some point I'll change my mind - having periodicals delivered straight to an e-reader sure would be nice.

Jill above is right, though - there's something about the Sunday newspapers, pajamas and endless coffee.

December 29, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterCrysta Anderson

Thanks for your excellent comment Crysta!

Yes, I have to admit, almost every one of my rooms has become a "book room" - sometimes, I think I should sell my townhouse and buy an old bookstore or small library and convert it into a house for my books (and me) to live in.

I continue to resist the Kindle and other e-book readers. But like you, I may soon have to change my mind.

I also definitely agree with you (and Jill) about pajamas and endless coffee - but then again, since I work from home, for me that describes everyday and not just Sundays. :-)

Best Regards,

Jim

December 29, 2009 | Registered CommenterJim Harris

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